# Inferences with Uncertainty

 Название Inferences with Uncertainty Дата конвертации 26.09.2012 Размер 445 b. Тип Документы

• ## 3. Working with the inference engine, experts can adjust the Step 1 input after viewing the results in Steps 2 and 3.

• In Step 2: Often the various events are interrelated.
• Necessary to combine the information provided in Step 1 into a global value for the system

• ## CFs need not sum to 100

• Rule 9
• if wine_color = red
• and body = full
• and sweetness = dry
• then wine = cabernet_sauvignon cnf 80
• because "This is a good wine~";
• Rule 1
• if main_component = meat
• then wine_color = red;
• Rule 3
• if has-sauce = yes
• and sauce_type = creamy
• then body = full cnf 90
• because "Creamy sauce needs full bodied wine";
• Rule 8
• if likes = dry
• then sweetness = dry;
• INPUTS: Meat cnf=100; has_sauce=95; creamy=70; likes dry=.60
• INTERMEDIATE: wine-color=red 100; body=full 63 [min(95,70)*90]; sweetness=dry 60
• FINAL: wine=cabernet sauvignon 48 [(min 100, 63, 60)*80]

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• ## For conjunction (AND):

• take min CNF of conditions
• ## For disjunction (OR):

• when one condition only is true take the CNF of true condition
• when both conditions are true:
• CNF antecedent=max CNF of conditions
• CNF Rule: Antecedent CNF*Consequent CNF

## AND

• IF inflation is high, CF = 50 percent, (A), AND
• IF unemployment rate is above 7 percent, CF = 70 percent, (B), AND
• IF bond prices decline, CF = 100 percent, (C)
• THEN stock prices decline

• ## Conclusion has a CF with the maximum of the two

• CF (A or B) = Maximum [CF (A), CF (B)]

• ## Example:

• R1: IF the inflation rate is less than 5 percent,
• THEN stock market prices go up (CF = 0.7)
• R2: IF unemployment level is less than 7 percent,
• THEN stock market prices go up (CF = 0.6)

• ## Combined Effect

• CF(R1,R2) = CF(R1) + CF(R2)[1 - CF(R1)]; or
• CF(R1,R2) = CF(R1) + CF(R2) - CF(R1)  CF(R2)

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