Article from the newspaper “Saint-Petersburg Businessman”
Original - Copyright © 1999 Gennady N. Kon
Translation - Copyright © 2000 Gennady N. Kon
Our reengineering Partnership System
ZORAN™ will take into consideration high risks problems
They say, that computer programs of new generation are appearing recently, which make it possible for usual businessman (owner), even without special education, to plan and to control independently his activity (or activity of his enterprise) at conditions of high (even highest) risks and indefiniteness. Is this so?
Really, at present time You can use computer programs - reengineering systems, - which allow for businessmen without problems to set and realize their personal control over enterprise activities at conditions of high indefiniteness and fuzzy data. Such features can be achieved by means of great friendliness from reengineering system, and also by means of reengineering system possibility for not only classic but unusual data types processing also. (Here and everywhere we’ l take as a suitable example and suitable illustrative materials reengineering Partnership System ZORAN™ features from MEGASOFT™ enterprise, Saint-Petersburg, Russia).
All classic computer programs are able to process traditional definite or concrete data. For example, You know, that according to conditions of Your contract with bank, credit sum will be 100000$ exactly. These are concrete data. Such definite data are using during data-processing by classic book-keeper computer programs, for instance. But very often it is impossible to present data at a concrete way. For instance it may be at enterprise activity planning processes when some data are not concrete and some data even are not known by personnel.
Only computer programs of new generation (united at Trade Mark “Partnership System ‘Zoran’”) can decide mentioned problems. It is possible because our reengineering systems are based upon ability to solve problems using unusual data types. Some materials below will illustrate important examples of outstandart data types.
At first, these are fuzzy or not concrete data. For instance, You know, that 100 PC lot cost is equal 100000$. This lot You want to buy in two months. Usual practice for computer market - periodical prices reduction. Therefore, with some confidence range You can wait that in two months 100 PC lot cost will be lower down to 1-10%. May be so. And at the same time may be not. Nobody can know exactly. This is indefinite situation. Human being is able to process in his mind 1-2-...-10(perhaps) indefinite situations. And what about 50? 200? 500? 1000? indefinite situations? Who can process such amount? Where do You find out a genius for work from? Who is able to process correctly at least 25 indefiniteness?
Let’s return to our example. After not complex calculations You can determine that in two months 100 PC lot cost will be equal 90000$<>100000$ (from 90000$ up to 100000$). But suddenly You are informed that in 1.5 month delivering prices will be increased up to 10% exactly, so that delivering difference sum will be equal 1000$ exactly. As a result Your waste in future will be something about 91000$<>101000$. These fuzzy data You can put into computer program - reengineering system - which will process these data correctly together with other fuzzy data and also together with concrete data usually presenting at calculations. Single thing here which You must to do - to put data into PC.
At second, we can consider without any saying that incomplete data are also belong to outstandart data types. For example, it can be the situation when a cell in a table is empty. But the contents of this cell is very important for subsequent calculations. In this case reengineering system, according to situation, in different ways, but correctly will process incomplete data.
At third, data may be indefinite. Some time You can only write for Your unknown sums “don’t know” or “it will be clear in few days afterwards” and so on. But our reengineering system can process such information also.
At fourth, data may be dependent, when one part of information depends on another parts of data. Suppose, You are going to buy milk tank from “Great Vasyuki” farm, and then resell it with some profit. So, You will be able to resell this tank only after it’s buying. Well, of course, there are some beautiful situations when You are firstly searching for a buyer, taking his money (this is equal to selling goods which You have no yet), and only afterwards it is necessary to find out a seller. In this case dependent events are changing by time moments simply: at first You are selling goods and only then You are buying it. It goes without any saying that in real life You can meet more complete situations. But there is one rule which is actual for event dependence always: if one event from it was unsuccessful - such dependence will be destroyed independently from other events.
In real life You can meet many hundreds and thousands of the most various dependencies. Therefore additionally You must remember always that event amount increasing in a dependence will be main reason for risk increasing simultaneously.
Up to date intellectual computer systems will help You to evaluate correctly the reality for event dependence profit and also for all mentioned dependencies profit.
Here is more complex dependence for illustration:
At fifth, data may turn out to be multivariant. Simple example. You are buying a potatoes lot for 200000$ from “Small Vasyuki” farm and in one week (after delivering), You are going to resell this lot to a single buyer from three potential buyers. According to Your expert conclusion, You will be able to resell Your potatoes lot:
1). To “Potatoes Plus” Limited for 250000$<>280000$ approximately, at 20% probability;
2). To “VegetablesB” Joint-Stock for 240000$<>270000$ at 30% probability;
3). And to “Agriculture Trade” Joint-Venture for 235000$<>260000$ at 50% probability.
But right now You don’t know exactly, what buyer will become the most profitable. Perhaps, in one week afterwards:
1). “Potatoes Plus” Limited will be ready to buy Your lot for 250000$ only;
2). “VegetablesB” Joint-Stock will refuse;
3). “Agriculture Trade” Joint-Venture for 259000$ - the most profitable buyer.
There is great amount of such multivariant event versions in a real life. And it is not easy for a human being to calculate all these events in his mind. Here is necessary to say also that mentioned example is only the simple event with 3 ways of possible ending. And probability sum for a simple event can not be moreover than 100%. If You are using reengineering system for calculations - You have no reasons for trouble: this system will correctly calculate any multivariant data and even all combinations of multivariant data totalities.
At sixth, data may be paradoxial. So, if in previous example probability of each variant will be equal 90% exactly, the probability sum of such complex event will be equal 270% - that is absolutely impossible according to probability theory. But even in this case our reengineering system will process correctly all paradoxial events. It is important to notice, besides all, that, of course, it is not necessary for You to put into reengineering system probability data. If this condition is taking place, Your waste for data input will be lower to some extent.
At seventh, data may be distributed - to be stored in different documents at various PC (united into a network and/or at single workstations). Here is the simple example: information, concerning “Potatoes Plus” Limited, is storing at PC № 1; “VegetablesB” Joint-Stock data are at PC № 2; and “Agriculture Trade” Joint-Venture information can be received from PC № 3. If there is a network, it is quite enough for You to indicate to reengineering system all necessary documents and wait for results afterwards.
And at eighth, at last, data may be nonevident also (when some information can not be received without preliminary processing) - at any moment You can take out nonevident data into PC display.
After Your data input, it is enough for You to allow a processing action to proceed and wait some moments while our reengineering system will independently find out all concrete, fuzzy, incomplete, indefinite, dependent, multivariant, paradoxial, distributed and nonevident data at Your problem, sort these data, verify information for mistakes presence, independently create united calculation formula, make all necessary calculations, and take out generalized information into PC display or into graphics devices.
Besides all, our reengineering system will help You to find out critical points at Your business activity plans and work out measures to remove these points.
Thus, You only ought to do, in general, creative tasks: to set Your goals clearly and determine input data correctly. Our reengineering system will do all other routine operations independently.
At any changes in initial data You can do without problems reengineering of Your business processes in real-time mode.
If You need additional calculation power, it is quite enough to buy new PC and additional license copy of reengineering Partnership System ZORAN™. Thus You can realize opportune scalability of Your calculation system.
And of course, there is a possibility for document processing (by means of OLE, for instance), created by other computer programs from other software creators.
Besides all, if You need for some single time calculations, it will be easily and cheaply for You to address into a specialized software and consulting firm. Specialists from such firm will help You to minimize Your indefiniteness and calculate all necessary data by means of legal computer programs.
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